Mapping the Potential Distribution of Prosopis juliflora under Climate Change Scenarios in Gurage Zone, Ethiopia
Abstract
In Ethiopia, a variety of invasive alien species, including Prosopis juliflora, have been introduced both intentionally and accidentally. The study mapped Prosopis juliflora distribution in Ethiopia's Gurage Zone to develop an early warning system. The Maximum Entropy model was used to predict future spread under climate change scenarios, with a 0.96 AUC, confirming its reliability and predicting the current and potential spread in the 2050s and 2070s. The results indicated that the current suitable habitats for P. juliflora are 13% moderately suitable and 6% highly suitable under existing climate conditions. Additionally, the model forecasted an increase in suitable habitat areas for Prosopis juliflora by the 2050s and 2070s, suggesting potential future expansion. The maps generated from this study can serve as a baseline for monitoring the species' spread and assist in formulating management strategies for its prevention, control, or eradication. If proactive measures are implemented early, the area may avoid a situation similar to that in Afar, where P. juliflora has already spread extensively. Our study calls for further on-site research and immediate action, including awareness campaigns, to mitigate future ecological and economic impacts. Detailed studies on control methods are recommended.
Keywords:
Climate Change, Gurage Zone, Invasive species, Mapping, ProsopisDownloads
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