Policy Implications of Housing Demand Forecasts in Dessie Town, Ethiopia: Insights from a Micro-Simulation Model

Abstract

Dessie Town is seeing significant population expansion, which is raising the number of homeless people living there. By 2030, the town's population is expected to increase from 280,000 to 415,426. This study aims to analyze housing demand in Dessie Town due to population and other demographic changes. The study examined housing demand, family structure, and population increase using micro-simulation forecasting models. According to the study, single people are more likely than couples to be homeless, and by 2030, housing demand is expected to rise by 50%. Rapid population growth, low emigration, and high immigration are the main drivers of rising housing demand. It is suggested that the municipality of Dessie prioritize the construction of new formal residences, particularly for low-income households, and consider other housing possibilities, such as informal settlements. To meet the changing needs of families and the changing housing market, the municipality should also focus on providing more housing options, such as inclusive mortgages and shared and rental homes.